Devastation of forest cover causes irreparable environmental damage
Environmentalists raise concern over the imminent devastation of forest coverage and the resultant loss of biodiversity due to the mining of quartz deposit in the Kotikambokka Kosgahawela Forest Reserve in Wellawaya, and also about the road being laid through the forest to access the quartz deposit. They blame the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) for approving a private company allied to the bureau to engage in the task. Mahaweli Development and Environment Ministry Secretary Udaya R. Seneviratne, in a letter sent on March 10, 2016, had instructed the GSMB Chairman to make necessary arrangements to commence the mining of the quartz deposit and construction of the access road as this decision was taken by the President at the progress review meeting of the Environment Ministry on March 31 this year.
Environmentalists say this project to exploit quartz deposit in an environmentally-significant sensitive forest area of Kotikambokka in Ethiliwewa Beat of the forest reserve, which comes under the purview of the Forest Conservation Department, would lead to many environmental and social problems. This is a natural forest area and habitat for biodiversity system consisting of endemic species.
The Kotikambokka Forest Reserve is an inter-zone forest, mixed with Savannah grass land. Environmentalists claim Gammalu, Aralu, Bulu Welan, Milla and Dada Kirala are prominent among the flora of this forest range and various kinds of orchids unique to the country are found here. Damages undergone by this environmental system since 2010, due to the activities of individuals and companies on political influences, would be aggravated by the clearing of sensitive wet layers of the forest to build the road to access the quartz deposit.
Meanwhile, Raja Vidana Pathirana of the Monaragala Nature Foundation said for the eight-metre wide 400-metre road, a strip of forest was to be cleared along the north boundary of the Alikota Ara Reservoir under the Uma Oya multi-purpose scheme, of which construction was now in progress. He said some 250-300 well-grown and valuable trees were to be cut and uprooted in a bid to clear the path, disturbing the existence of biodiversity in and around.
Further, he said the need for the access road had arisen due to the construction of the new Alikota Ara Reservoir of the Uma Oya Project.
However, Uma Oya Project Manager Engineer P.M.M.P.S.D. Herath had sent a letter to the Monaragala District Forest Officer on August 13, explaining the probable adverse effects on the new reservoir in clearing the forest cover on site of quartz deposit and the Kosgahawela Forest Reserve. However, Technological Services Private Limited (TSC) of the GSMB has sought approval for a land area of two hectares for mining of the quartz deposit in the Kosgahawela Forest Reserve.
According to the No. 722/22 Gazette notification issued on June 24, 1993, under the No. 47 of 1980 Environment Act, ministry approval has to be obtained after an Environment Impact Assessment (EIA). However, the TSC seems to begin the mining activities without an EIA, taking the advantage of political influence as revealed. However, severe damage to the dam of the reservoir is inevitable when the blasting is done in mining the quartz deposit. The Kosgahawela Forest Reserve where this quartz deposit is located and the reservoir are fed with water from the Alikota Ara canal. Clearing of forest cover in these areas would cause soil erosion, and the deposit of sediments in the reservoir would dwindle the water storage capacity of the reservoir in a short span of time.
However, when we contacted Monaragala District D.P. Prasad and asked about the mining of the quartz deposit, he affirmed beginning of the proposed project. He said the forest area had already experienced a considerable environmental damage due to several improper mining done on several occasions in the past. He pointed out that inappropriate mining would cause severe damage to this sensitive environment system, and that it was advisable to begin the mining operation after studying an environmental impact report. However, he declined to explain further. Meanwhile, the environmentalists said those interested in achieving economic gains in a short period of time had misled the President who was also the Environment Minister, thus ignoring the irreparable loss to the entire country in the long run. They also stressed the importance of the President’s attention with regards to these sensitive environmental concerns. –
Source : 01/12/2016 Daily Mirror http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/Devastation-of-forest-cover-causes-irreparable-environmental-damage-120031.html
Generating clean energy at cost of nature
Sri Lanka’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) propose to promote Mini and Micro Hydro Power generation projects as an environmental friendly power generation option to national economy. Mini hydro power plants with 176 MW capacity will be established in the coming years. They expect to reduce 20 percent of GHG emission (approximately 36,010.2 Gg) in energy sector by 2030 against the Business-As-Usual scenario as unconditionally 4 percnt (approximately 7,202.04 Gg) and conditionally 16 percent (approximately 28,808.16 Gg) as a solution for climate change.However, we have to address the issue whether we want to develop clean energy at the cost of nature, social and cultural needs.
Sri Lanka’s energy mix
The average per capita electricity consumption in 2014 was 535 kWh per person in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan power system has a total installed capacity of 3500 MW by end of 2014 including 1285 MW thermal power. The maximum demand recorded in 2014 was 2152 MW. Therefore, one does not see major issues with installed capacity.
The CEB’s own generation mix has changed dramatically in recent years. In 2014, it generated around 3600 GWh from hydropower plants, 3200 GWh from coal-fired power plants and 1800 GWh from oil-fired power plants. The CEB’s generation mix was quite different in 2013, when it generated almost 6000 GWh from hydro, 1500 GWh from coal and 1300 GWh from oil. The government has taken a policy decision to develop hydro-power plants below 10 MW capacities by the private sector – the reason for this mini hydro controversy.
Since 1996 many small hydro plants and a few other renewable power plants have been connected to the grid. Total capacity of these plants is approximately 350 MW. These plants are mainly connected to 33 kV distribution lines. The CEB has signed standard power purchase agreements for another 249 MW. Shifting production at the CEB over the years has been due to a wide range of factors, including the lack of rainfall, introduction of coal, the growing amount of power generated by private companies and reach of the transmission grid, which currently serves more than 98 percent of the population.
Mini-hydro is one of the best sovereign and renewable energy sources to combat climate change. This was certainly in the era that Sri Lanka was promoting village hydro/pico hydro to provide electricity to the rural villages with no grid connection. This is a better option for rural electrification without depending on the imported coal, oil or gas and large grid as long as they are not connected to the national electricity grid.
Things changed when the multi-million companies got into the business with developing mini-hydro connected to the national grid. The so called mini hydro experts started selling potential locations to rich companies backed by politicians, even the Sustainable Energy Authority started providing provisional approval for the project with no scientific analysis done on the impacts to the river ecosystem and society.
Aesthetic beauty and biodiversity
Sri Lankan landscape has over 700 waterfalls, and over 150 have vanished by the mini hydro projects. Over 200 km of streams are now flowing through the pipelines and the river sections are dried up. River users are completely helpless and the river biodiversity including the fish species have gone forever. Diyagalla Ella in Watawala, Kurundu Oya Ella, St Clairs are some famous falls destroyed for hydropower. Ali Hatha, Atha Mala Ella, Hath Male Ella, Athwelthota Ella and many others will also disappear soon. The CEA has a list of 546 waterfalls to be gazetted for conservation. This list does not include those project already approved and under construction. Some of the bigger falls are among those have removed from the list by the CEA officers.
Unfortunately, the Central Environmental Authority, Forest Department, Wildlife Department, Geological Survey and the Mines Bureau got officials sympathetic with the project developers but not on the environment or the affected people. The most recent example is that approval of the 1 MW mini hydro-power project in Morapitiya-Athwelthota waterfall where the National Aquatic Resource and Research Agency found that 15 fish species out of 25 are in danger. The location is home to two point endemic fish species i.e Martenstyne’s Goby and Rasboroides nigomarginatus. The EIA consultants however, only reported 18 fish species in this location in 2014 whereas the Wildlife Conservation Society, Galle found 32 fish species. This shows that we cannot depend on EIA consultants, who make reports to justify the projects in favour of the developer who pay the consultancy fees.
(Mini hydro in Ramboda Falls)
Corrupt approval process
Sadly, the EIA process in Sri Lanka is corrupt and misleading. Its process has lost the glory days due to the political interventions, lack of EIA law enforcement, unqualified project staff approving agencies and corrupt EIA experts/ academics. Therefore, current EIA process has failed to control the damage done to the river systems by the Mini hydro developers.
So far the CEA has approved over 100 mini hydro power projects. Fish ladders and environmental flow has given as an important conditions among many others. But none of these dams are operating the fish ladders or release adequate environmental flow. The truth is that the CEA does not monitor these projects and they have no capacity to do so. Therefore, the CEA has no idea what these dams done to our river network.
The condition on fish ladders is an attempt of green washing of mini-hydro dams by the CEA and rest of the project approving agencies. None of them have the expertise on how the fish ladders are working in Sri Lankan context. We do not even have good research on which species are migrating and which time of the year. Most threatened fish species in Sri Lanka cannot use fish ladders. Therefore, fish ladders are not the solution for many migratory species. A river study in the US Northeast has found that many fish species are unable to use standard passageways to swim past dams on their spawning runs . They also found even if they go upstream, they cannot swim downstream. Why these officers still fool people by giving fish ladders as a condition is a question.
Similarly, no dam operators provide adequate environmental flow, which is the second lie in approving the dams. Only about 4-inch diameter PVC pipe has used as the e-flow where the river is more than 30 meter wide.
In the case of Athwelthota and In Gatambe mini hydro projects, a condition has also given to translocate these threatened fish species, which is not practical and studied yet at all. Why do the CEA officers and developers fool the nature and people with such conditions? It should be noted that fish is not the only biodiversity living in these microhabitats. Thousands of other fauna and flora species may lose survival due to this destruction.
Sustainable Energy Authority is a problem
The problems in the mini hydro is a procedural issues too. The Sustainable Energy Authority (SEA) is the main culprit for the damage done by the mini hydro projects. They issue the provisional approval without any information on the negative environmental impacts of the project which then developer use to obtain rest of the licences. Those other ignorant agencies such as local authorities, divisional secretariats provide their approval without much worry. The CEA and other project approving agencies satisfy the documentary need by requesting Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) and very rarely an EIA. IEE documents are not open for public comments. People learn the projects in the last minute and too late for any intervention. By the time the developer has spend significant amount of money for the EIA consultants and the officials and they are not ready to be defeated in this process. To allow this process, the SEA has issued a gazette notification declaring that 500-meter of the riverbank each side may be given for mini hydro development. They have also declared certain rivers as hydro-power potential rivers without even basic environmental assessment or strategic environmental assessment produced.
What should we do
We are now in the era of climate change. Humans are not the only species in trouble due to this man-made disaster. Running rivers are very much important for river life and people. Once lost these ecosystems cannot recover at all. It took almost a decade to understand the wrong doing by the mini hydro projects. It is too late in certain rivers. The river ecosystem in the Kuru Ganga, the Mahaweli Ganga upstream are almost dead now.
We have no protected rivers for fish, fresh water crabs and others species of fauna and flora. The latest Red Data List reports Sri Lanka has 50 endemic crab species out of 51 species, 256 endemic spider species out of 501 species. It also reports 205 out of 253 land snails are endemic to Sri Lanka and 50 fish species out of 91 species found in Sri Lanka are endemic. The data shows that protecting the terrestrial ecosystems is so important. Unfortunately, the CEA and other project-approving agencies are so ignorant about this data and approve project in such sensitive habitats.
It is time to fight against destructive mini hydro projects and stop them. It is also time to demolish those mini hydro projects which are not productive and built in sensitive ecosystems. It is not a sustainable climate solution anymore. Let the non-traditional renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, tidal power take the place of mini hydro to mitigate climate change. We request Climate Change Secretariat to remove the reference to the mini-hydro projects from Sri Lanka’s Nationally Determined Contributions.
Source : 29/11/2016 Daily News http://www.dailynews.lk/2016/11/29/features/100499
Koskulana mini hydro-power project: A disaster for ecological diversity?
Sri Lanka is blessed with plenty of rainforests that had contributed to regulating its climatic conditions over the years. Yet during the recent past, people with influential backgrounds have resorted to utilizing these natural resources for their personal benefits. A series of mini-hydro projects and hotels which were suspended due to various environmental and humanitarian concerns are subject to commencement under the purview of the Ministry of Special Assignments.
One such project that had raised concerns over the environmental-expert fraternity is the Koskulana mini-hydro project which is being developed within a ‘buffer zone’ of the Sinharaja Forest – a rainforest in Sri Lanka which has been listed as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. According to environmental experts a buffer zone is defined as an area of land which is designated for environmental protection. In an attempt to shed light on this issue, Dailymirror the spoke to a few concerned parties to inquire about the current progress of this project.
The DS has issued this land for temporary use : PILF
The Public Interest Law Foundation (PILF), a non-profit organisation established in 1999, which highlights environmental issues, has taken legal measures against this project and have filed a case in the Court of Appeal. Speaking Dailymirror to the , a representative of this organisation who wished to remain anonymous said that they were very much concerned about this issue after it was aired on television last November. “We filed a case under the complaint number 527/2015 and took up the matter in courts. We thought we should take a closer look at this project and when inquired we came to know that it was happening inside the buffer zone of the Sinharaja Forest violating certain laws and regulations. The project is being done at a border of an area which has been marked as a UNESCO World Heritage Site and I think this is a serious matter to be dealt with.
But this ongoing project doesn’t seem to be a temporary one at all. When the matter was taken up in courts a notice was issued to suspend the work. Therefore, by any chance if the developer resumes work, it would be contempt of court. We have also drafted a petition with seven parties appearing as respondents
One of the main problems concerning this matter is the fact that there has been no Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) done addressing the pros and cons it would impose on the environment. The Central Environmental Authority has asked to stop issuing EIAs but to just submit an Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) which doesn’t include the public opinion. For an issue like this, the public opinion is very crucial because it is the villagers who will be affected in the end. An IEE is negligible when it comes to a large scale process like this. We are trying to restore this by making a request in courts to introduce the system of drafting EIAs and clarifying the issues when it comes to environmental concerns rather than drafting IEEs and white-washing a major part of the issue which needs to be highlighted.”
We filed a case under the complaint number 527/2015 and took up the matter in courts
When inquired further, the PILF has also found that the Divisional Secretary of Kalawana has given this particular stretch of land to the developer through a permit to be used on a temporary basis. “But this ongoing project doesn’t seem to be a temporary one at all. When the matter was taken up in courts a notice was issued to suspend the work. Therefore, by any chance if the developer resumes work, it would be contempt of court. We have also drafted a petition with seven parties appearing as respondents.”
The villagers were bribed to support the project : Resident
The Sinharaja World heritage site is home to many endemic species including freshwater fishes. The Koskulana River which flows through the forest is a treasure to many villagers living within this area.
Remaining under strict condition of anonymity, an area resident said that as a result of the weir that has been built across the river, 5.8km of the river will be dried down. “This would disturb the life cycles of the fish living in small streams. This area is home to 300 odd villagers and they utilize water from this river for their daily consumption. When this water gets dried down, how will they survive? When the ecosystem is disturbed orchids and other such plants will be subject to extinction. When this particular Professor came to do a report on this area we were told that due to blasting of rocks there will be landslides experienced on areas where there are steep elevations. Another concern is the fact that this particular project is supposed to produce up to 750kW but the amount of water provided by the river is not sufficient enough to produce such a capacity.”
The resident also said that several politicians have been exerting their influences to continue this project. “Politicians such as Piyasena Gamage have been involved in this project from the beginning. According to my knowledge, the developer gets a profit of Rs. 1 million when generating 1 MW of electricity and the estimate for this project was close to Rs. 218 million. Several people supporting the project have bribed the villagers asking them to support the project. Now the villagers are having different opinions about it. Only a few couldn’t be bought to support this project and they know the true value of their environment.”
Yes, I decided to revoke suspensions on these projects : Sarath Amunugama
In his comments to the Dailymirror , Special Assignments Minister Sarath Amunugama said that he had walked every bit of this area while serving as a government agent in Galle. “It was I who gave land to these people so how can they say that this project will cause harm on the environment. Several of these projects were suspended due to abeyance of certain authorities including some NGOs and environmental rights activists.
They have been shouting ever since this project started and therefore we had to suspend work for some time. But as far as I’m concerned there will be no harm caused to the environment and therefore, I have decided to revoke suspensions on these projects and complete them soon.”
In his comments to the Dailymirror , Special Assignments Minister Sarath Amunugama said that he had walked every bit of this area while serving as a government agent in Galle. “It was I who gave land to these people so how can they say that this project will cause harm on the environment. Several of these projects were suspended due to abeyance of certain authorities including some NGOs and environmental rights activists.
They have been shouting ever since this project started and therefore we had to suspend work for some time. But as far as I’m concerned there will be no harm caused to the environment and therefore, I have decided to revoke suspensions on these projects and complete them soon.”
Can’t respond, matter is in courts : Kalawana Divisional Secretary
The Dailymirror spoke to the Kalawana Divisional Secretary, G.D.L Udayakumari to inquire about the allegations but she refused to reply since the matter is still in courts.
Mini-hydro plants are not a sustainable solution: Jayantha Wijesinghe
Speaking to the , Chief Co-ordinator of Rainforest Protectors of Sri Lanka, Jayantha Wijesinghe said that when a project of this nature is being done, certain legal procedures should be taken in to consideration. “The initial approval for the project was submitted back in 2008 but then the Forest Department rejected approval. However, by 2014 they were able to convince the Forest Department and they started the project. About 25-30% has been completed so far according to my knowledge but several other parties argue that almost 75% of the construction has been done. The Koskulana River is situated within the buffer zone of the Sinharaja Forest and therefore it is a highly protected area. The project is being done adjoining the boundary of this buffer zone. Buffer zone areas are quite important since they have high ecological diversity and therefore much attention needs to be given in terms of preserving the environment. Whoever is developing projects should consider the environment as their topmost priority. However, the major problem occurs when they start to build the weir across the river because thereafter it would slow down the flow of water. This will have a negative impact on species migration especially that of the fish population. This in turn will disturb the river flow and as a result the entire structure of the ecosystem will break down. At present a weir is built across the river and that itself is a violation of the law.”
“Another massive problem will be that around 500-600m of the river will be dried down. In reality nobody will be concerned to monitor the flow of water. They also have done sand-mining and have cleared about 2-3 acres. This hydro power plant is being constructed within 4 km of the Kudawa entrance. One has to reach this site through thick forest and on either side lies the Rajuwankanda forest annexed to Sinharaja. Here there are 10-15 small streams and a footpath used by villagers. But after this project has commenced work, there have been heavy vehicles moving along this footpath which has made it muddy so much so that now villagers cannot use it. In addition to that, the small streams have been disturbed and there too, the water has become muddy. Living in these small streams are little fishes endemic to Sri Lanka and once their ecosystems get damaged, their lifecycles will be disturbed.”
Political powerhouses are playing a game undercover and they do not know the consequences of such actions. Banks too are in the process of issuing loans at lower interest rates so that these people can carry out their shrewd plans
Speaking about the quotient that is contributed by mini-hydro plants, Mr. Wijesinghe said that when the main energy requirement is 2500-2900 MW per day, these mini-hydro plants generate only around 5% of it. “This amount is negligible. During the times of the drought, this percentage reduces to less than 1%. There are around 190 mini-hydro plants in Sri Lanka but altogether they contribute only about 2.5-2.8%. Therefore this is not a sustainable solution.
It has been estimated that the Koskulana plant would only generate a minimal 0.6 MW which in other words is 600 KW. If you take an iron at home, it has a capacity of 1KW so this means that the Koskulana mini-hydro plant can generate energy to power-up 600 irons only. Political powerhouses are playing a game undercover and they do not know the consequences of such actions. Banks too are in the process of issuing loans at lower interest rates so that these people can carry out their shrewd plans.”
Source : 27/07/2016 Dailly Mirror : http://www.dailymirror.lk/113170/Koskulana-mini-hydro-power-project-A-disaster-for-ecological-diversity-#sthash.CX5d5luE.dpuf
Is the Air Pollution Analysis for the Sampur Coal Plant Credible?
Where does the Wind take pollutants from Sampur?
As per modern myth, school texts, national atlases, and indigenous forecasters, the wind blows from the North-East over Sri Lanka at the turn of the calendar year. Even the birds know it. The transcontinental migrants draft on the North-Easterlies and steer to hone in to Hambantota for the Siberian winters. However, the analysis of atmospheric pollution in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the coal burning power plant proposed at Sampur presumes that the wind blows from the South-East. On this discrepancy, rides not only the credibility of the EIA but impacts of profound consequence.
A 3-D visualization of Sri Lanka topography. Courtesy: Gunaratne and Zubair, 2015.
If the wind is from the North-East, it shall entrain the pollutants from Sampur towards the central mountain ranges from Ritigala to Namunukula. Mountains amplify the impacts of pollutants on atmospheric chemistry and cloud physics. Even a modest rise in toxic gases can have damaging consequences on the air people and animals breathe, the water they drink, and ecosystems. This can impact the quality of tea, agriculture and homegardens not on the slopes, and downstream and hydropower generation.
Coal burning power plants release dust and pollutants and toxins such as Mercury into the atmosphere. Every year, the Sampur plant is projected to vent 10,000 tons of Sulphur Dioxide, 10,000 tons of Nitrous Dioxide, 1700 tons of other particulate matter and other toxins and 4 million tons of Carbon Dioxide. These are monumental quantities that cry out for serious attention.
To show that this is safe, the EIA consultants from New Delhi, Mantec Consultants Ltd, rely on a computer model which tries to mimic the venting of these chemicals into the atmosphere. Such computer models are built on vast generalisations and shaky assumptions. To mitigate the shortcomings, all available data should be used after careful quality control and the results should be cross-examined.
The Wind over Sri Lanka from December to February
Mantec relies on one year of observations by Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) at Sampur and another month of their own measurements. This is a hundredth of the wind observation that are available. It may be that the CEB instruments registered something extraordinary over Sampur from December 2012 to February 2013. This possibility should be entertained after cross checking the data against observations in the neighbourhood. Usually when one undertakes environmental observations in a new site, stringent checks should be undertaken. Often there are instrument errors, calibration errors or simply misalignment or errors in recording data. No reports on quality control have been presented. The “windrose” from Mantec which represents the direction from which wind comes and is shown here is consistent with the Mantec finding that the wind from December to February comes largely from the South-East.
The “Windrose” is a representation of which direction the wind comes from. The distribution of wind speeds from each direction December 2012 to February 2013 is shown as estimated by Mantec. Courtesy: Sampur EIA from Mantec.
The wind directions for December to February that Mantec has presented are at odds with measurements from the Department of Meteorology, the Air Force, by the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) elsewhere and our own institute in Kandy. Satellite wind observations and climate model simulations too present North-Easterly flows. There are dozens of research papers to confirm this – for example, the CEB observations at Sita Eliya (Zubair, 2002a) and Hambantota (Zubair, 1998).
Above: The average wind from observations during January at a height of about a km is shown as an arrow. The average rainfall is shown in shades of green and as contours. Below: Windrose for January for 16 years observation at China Bay, Trincomalee. The wind direction in this case is from the North-East.
Assumptions & Generalisations Regarding Wind and Air Pollution in the EIA
There are other causes for concern. Mantec have made the following inter-locking assumptions and generalisations:
a) The wind measurements in Sampur represents the wind across the East.
A better accounting of regional variation in wind is needed. There are variations due to location, storms, mountains and sea breeze. The sea-breeze and the desiccating mountain slope winds (“kachchan kaththa”in Tamil) affect Sampur in a particular way.
b) Wind observations at Sampur can be extrapolated to higher elevations
The CEB instrument does not reach the high elevations that the pollutants travel to. It is hard to capture the wind profile at higher elevations without observations. The assumptions in the software developed in the USA about the upper air should have been verified for our specific equatorial geography.
c) One year of wind observations is enough
The wind varies substantially from year to year variation of wind in Sri Lanka. For example, in some years there are storms and even cyclones. In other years, the El Nino alters the wind flow. One cannot just use one year of data to project for the next half century, if serious.
d) The past can represent the future
With climate change (Zubair et al., 2015), one cannot assume that the past represents the future. The EIA does not address the risks posed by climate change such as more frequent intense rainfall, cyclones, a rise in sea level or changing wind and storm patterns, all of it of relevance for Trincomalee.
These shortcomings could have been mitigated by making use of all available data, consulting past research, addressing inconsistencies and communicating what risks this analysis has not addressed.
Pollution Concentrations on the Ground According to the EIA
Based on these data and assumptions, the Mantec model estimates dispersion of dust, nitrous oxides, sulphurous oxides and particulate matter under idealised conditions. For example, there shall be no plant breakdowns or accidental large releases – both occurrences of undue frequency at Norochcholai. Essentially the model projects how much of the dust shall settle in the region just surrounding the power plant. They limit their analysis to 20 kilometres. The wind data for December to February largely blows from in-between the East and South-East directions.
The output from the Mantec model perplexes – for example, in the December to February period, the pollutants are carried towards the South-East and into the sea. In other words, the pollutants go against the wind. Nowhere on the earth’s surface is passive matter known to go against the wind.
Nitrous Oxide Pollution for Dec-Feb period as estimated by Mantec: The contours shows the peak concentration of nitrous oxides for a day due to the emissions. We inset an arrow to show the South-Easterly wind direction that the wind comes from according to Mantec. Notice, the contours with higher concentration is drawn towards the South-East against the direction of wind. In other seasons too, the pollutants appear to go against the wind in their models. Source: Mantec EIA Report.
In an attempt to validate the Mantec model results, the Industrial Technology Institute (former CISIR) was contracted by Mantec to undertake similar simulations. The ITI model – which is a commercial version of what Mantec used – too relies on similar assumptions and generalizations. They too use only one year of wind data albeit from a climate model run in the US and no ground observations. Not enough information is given in the EIA for comparison across seasons. However, the patterns of dispersion of pollutants they project is misaligned with that from Mantec and the pollutant concentrations is several times that from Mantec. The EIA does not reconcile the discrepancies which defeats the objective of validation.
Not matter how complex the models or are how attractive the outputs appear, the truth that all modelers live by – “Rubbish In, Rubbish Out” – holds.
What Can We Infer for Mountains and the Atmosphere Above us?
Wind and Rainfall in the North-East Monsoon
As the North-Easterlies winds take moist air up the mountain slope, it encounters cooler temperatures. As it cools, the water vapour in the air condenses into tiny droplets. These droplets forms only on tiny impurities that are found even in the pristine air in the East. These droplets keep growing into clouds until they are large enough till they burst and fall as rainfall. This mechanism is what gives us the heaviest rainfall on the eastern slopes of our hills from December to February (Zubair, 1999).
Increase the pollution levels even modestly, and the droplets shall become a mist rather than a rain cloud and pass over the mountains an onwards West. Not only can such slight increases in pollution reduce rainfall, it can also reduce solar radiation and change evaporation. It can reduce the flow in our eastern streams and disturb the ecosystems from the hills to the eastern coast directly.
Average Wind estimated from observations and simple laws of nature for December. The size of arrow for wind speed of 10 meters/second is shown at the bottom-right. Source: Gunaratne and Zubair, 2015.
Impacts of Pollution Streams on the Mountain Slopes
The sulphurous and nitrous oxide emissions along with the heavy metals can lead to toxic rainfall. This can have far reaching consequences on our climate, the health of humans, ecosystems, water supply, air we breathe, the quality of tea, agriculture, and hydropower generation. The contamination shall be not only on the eastern mountain slopes but be carried to the eastern slopes and and to the coasts by rain and rivers.
Two decades back, Prof. Oliver Illepurama’s research group undertook studies in Kandy and reported that air pollution levels for some of the gases released at Sampur were hazardous much more than in Kandy (Illeperuma and Abeyratne, 2002) – things have only got worse since (Illeperuma, 2015). Thus in Kandy, the only place we have data, it is clear that there is a hazard to public health from the additional risk from Sampur.
Learning from other Coal Plants
The surroundings of the Norochcholai power plant are covered in dust particularly when the wind blows from the South-West. No government body monitors and reports on it. And one can only describe this as willful and convenient blindness by the state.
As poorly anticipated, monitored and mitigated as the air pollution at Norochcholai is, the consequences at Sampur can be worse. The wind field and topography is such that the pollutants from Norochcholai are entrained away from our mountains but not that from Sampur.
Some argue that combustion technology and air scrubbing system is more advanced at Sampur Power Plant. This assurance needs to be taken with caution. A model “clean technology” coal power plant was installed 3 years ago in Mississippi, USA in much more advantageous circumstances, and despite all the promises and state support, it has only left massive pollution far and no one accountable to clean up (New York Times, July 5, 2016).
Credibility of the Air Pollution Analysis
When anyone proposes to experiment with our atmosphere by injecting millions of tonnes of chemicals for multiple decades, we should take extraordinary care. We must have air pollution projections which are transparently done, are scientifically defensible, and undertaken with integrity, technical competence and professionalism. The results should be presented openly and reviewed independently . By using air pollution models which are limited by design in what it can anticipate, by using input data that are suspect, by not consulting what is already known, by providing no credible validation, by limiting the checks to pollution levels at the ground alone, and by not being forthcoming about the limitations, the EIA process for the coal plants has not credibly addressed the danger ahead.
According to the EIA regulations (Zubair, 2002b), those affected should be informed and consulted in formulating the projects. If the fisher-folk of Sampur whose livelihood and health likely is compromised by this project and who know to live by their wits through an intimacy with the rhythms of the air and seas had been asked, they could have told the Consultants from New Delhi and Colombo and their clients, as to which way the wind blows.
References:
- Abeyratne, V.D.K. & Ileperuma, O.A., (2011). Air pollution monitoring in the city of Kandy: possible transboundary effects. Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka. 34(3), pp.137–141. http://jnsfsl.sljol.info/articles/abstract/10.4038/jnsfsr.v34i3.3644/
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