Picture credits: World Wildlife Fund
In a tremendous turning point for a species on the brink of extinction, the global tiger population has stabilized and potentially increased, according to the latest International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species Assessment, led by Panthera, the global wild cat conservation organization. New data suggests a potential 40% increase in tiger numbers, from 3,200 in 2015 to 4,500 in 2022, despite extreme threats. Signaling a potential comeback for the big cat in the Year of the Tiger, this represents the first potential climb in the species’ numbers in decades.
Panthera Chief Scientist and Tiger Program Director, Dr. John Goodrich, stated, “While a monumental amount of protection and funding are still needed before proclaiming ‘mission accomplished,’ these numbers signal previously incomprehensible stability in the global tiger population, and even increases in some protected areas. This is nothing short of a watershed moment in the history of the species, made even more remarkable given the overwhelming threats tigers face at every turn.”
Mother tiger (T-19 Krishna) & cubs in Ranthambhore national park, India.
Picture credits: World Wildlife Fund
Goodrich continued, “Protected area population increases in India, Nepal, and Thailand are particularly encouraging as they demonstrate that the recipe for saving tigers can be tailored and replicated across the species’ range. If progress continues as it has in the last decade, I fully expect tigers to be reclassified as ‘Vulnerable’ by the next IUCN Red List Assessment in seven to ten years.”
The IUCN’s latest assessment estimates between 3,726 – 5,578 wild tigers remain in Asia, with an average of 4,500 individuals; 3,140 of the 4,500 are estimated to be adult tigers. Representing 76% of the global tiger population, South Asia’s tigers are gaining numbers, particularly in India and Nepal from where new population estimates are expected any day. In Northeast Asia, numbers are relatively stable in Russia and likely increasing along the border with China. Of all regions, however, Southeast Asia’s tigers are faring the worst, with tigers having been lost from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam since the turn of the century.
Panthera scientists cautioned that although new data suggest more tigers exist in the wild than previously estimated, this is partly due to improvements in or a more complete counting of the species, which has made population comparisons over time unreliable. As recently as 15 years ago, scientists were forced to make educated guesses about tiger numbers, but with the invention of and subsequent advances in camera trap technology, genetic testing, data modeling, government collaboration, and more, rangers tracking tigers have vastly improved monitoring efforts.
Inconsistent monitoring methods by tiger range states have produced false positive population increases as well. Previous IUCN assessments, including that led by Panthera, have also incorporated highly conservative population estimates or underestimates, nearly guaranteeing increases in future tiger population estimates. Still, the 2022 IUCN Assessment is now the most reliable and scientifically sound estimate of tigers ever conducted and serves as the first reasonable baseline against which scientists can measure future changes in the global tiger population.
